Youth unemployment and labour market transitions in Hungary

Unemployment and labour market adjustment have featured prominently in the problems of transitional economies. However, the position of young people and their transitions from school to work in these new market economies has been virtually ignored. This paper examines a new large longitudinal data set relating to young people in Hungary over the period 1994–98. Using data on each individual's labour market state over 4 years we estimate a panel econometric model that explicitly allows for duration dependence and individual unobserved heterogeneity to capture the diversity of initial conditions faced by these young people in the labour market. In modelling the education and employment decisions in the transition from school to work we find strong evidence of the importance of individuals making good initial career decisions and an enduring effect of academic achievement on labour market and education outcomes.