The Ethiopian Transition: Democratization or New Authoritarianism?

The early 1990s became the age of instant democracy in Africa in the same way as the mid-1970s were the age of instant socialist transforma- tion. In both periods, a combination of internal pressures, the carrots offered and sticks wielded by outside supporters, and prevailing intel- lectual fashions led a considerable number of African regimes to pro- claim their allegiance to the ideology of the moment. With the benefit of hindsight, it is easy to conclude that those African countries that attempted a sudden transition to a Soviet-inspired social- ist model succeeded in creating only very pale replicas of the original. They put in place the formal trappings of the system, but without the substance. Governments lacked the necessary tools for political and eco- nomic control, and the underlying structural conditions did not lend themselves to the desired transformation. Without the benefit of hindsight, it is difficult to reach equally firm conclusions about the success of instant democratization, but there are reasons to doubt that forced, rapid transformation can be more than a purely formal process, without content. Ethiopia provides an interesting example of a country that attempted instant socialist transformation in the 1970s and 1980s and is now pur- portedly engaged in an ambitious attempt at democratic transformation. The process, which started after the overthrow of the Mengistu regime in May 1991, was expected to culminate during 1995 with the elections for a new parliament.