Activity Spaces in Multimodal Transportation Networks: A Nonlinear and Spatial Analysis Perspective

Activity space offers a valuable perspective for analyzing urban travel behavior and evaluating the performance of transportation systems in increasingly complex urban environments. However, the research on measuring activity spaces in multimodal transportation contexts remains limited. This study investigates multimodal transportation activity spaces in Hangzhou using 2023 smart card data. Multimodal travel chains are extracted, and residents’ activity spaces are quantified using 95% confidence ellipses. By applying the XGBoost and GeoShapley models, this study reveals the nonlinear effects and geospatial heterogeneity in how built environment and socioeconomic factors influence activity spaces. The key findings show that the distance to the nearest metro station, commercial POIs, and GDP significantly shape activity spaces through nonlinear relationships. Moreover, the interaction between the distance to the nearest metro station and geographical location generates pronounced geospatial effects. The results highlight the importance of multimodal integration in urban transport planning and provide empirical insights for enhancing system efficiency and sustainability.