Independent indicators of outcome in severe paediatric malaria: maternal education, acidotic breathing and convulsions on admission

Severe malaria is an important cause of death in hospitalized children in Mozambique, but the risk factors for this remain unclear. The objectives of the study were to define simple clinical criteria to identify on admission the children most at risk of dying. We studied prospectively 559 children admitted with severe malaria to the Department of Paediatrics of the Central Hospital of Maputo, Mozambique between March 1995 and August 1996. The case fatality rate was 3.6%. In a multiple logistic regression model, mothers' education (RR = 9.6, 95% CI 1.2-76.0), acidotic breathing (RR = 4.3, 95% CI 1.3-13.8) and convulsions in the emergency room (RR = 8.1, 95% CI 2.6-25.1) were associated with outcome. Together they predicted 97% of outcomes but only 33.3% of deaths.