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Periodic changes of direction in this century have made any forecast of [U.S.] fertility hazardous. Arguments are advanced for rephrasing the forecast model to correspond to the language of analysis by abandoning the period orientation and describing cohort reproduction as progression from parity to parity interval by interval....Because of inadequacy of the knowledge base substantive elaboration of the forecast model would be ill-advised at present. It would seem judicious to look only a short distance ahead revise often and perform an autopsy on each forecast failure a task for which the recommended procedure is well-suited. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
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Norman B. Ryder (1990) studied this question.
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