Turkestan cockroach environmental suitability in the United States

The Turkestan cockroach (Periplaneta lateralis [Walker]) is a highly successful invasive species with rapid expansion across several world regions, including areas outside its typical environmental range. This study uses species distribution modeling to predict environmental suitability across the United States under present and future climate conditions. Occurrence records from iNaturalist and GBIF were combined with biotic and abiotic predictors sourced from WorldClim 2.1, Gridded Population of the World v4.11, WorldPop, and VIIRS Nighttime Lights. Models were projected under present conditions and future climate scenarios using 4 Earth system models (ACCESS, MIROC, MPI-ESM, UKESM) under a high-emission pathway from CMIP6. Seasonal and monthly variation in suitability were also assessed. Under present conditions, P. lateralis exhibits high suitability in the Southwestern United States, with lower suitability in Southeastern regions. Texas (241,367 km²) and California (227,632 km²) showed the largest suitable areas, while California (0.617) and Arizona (0.607) ranked highest in mean suitability scores. Seasonal projections indicate peak suitability during summer months. Future projections, though variable across Global Climate Models (GCMs), consistently suggested an expansion of suitable habitat, with MPI-ESM and MIROC showing the most coherent patterns. Suitable areas shifted northward and eastward across all the time periods analyzed. The suitability of P. lateralis is driven by both anthropogenic and abiotic factors, with urbanization and human-related infrastructure playing a key role. Suitable habitat is projected to expand through 2080, with environmentally suitable areas projected to shift northward and eastward. These findings support pest management planning by identifying high-risk regions with suitable environment and critical seasonal windows for early detection and surveillance prioritization.