A Kalman filter algorithm and 1895–1988 data were used to estimate a U.S. corn yield model which incorporates a stochastic trend term and monthly weather indices. Yield growth peaked in 1964, with the annual increase now only 1.3 bushels per year. The empirical distribution of 1989 corn yield is derived and found to be skewed. The mean yield for 1989 was close to final USDA estimates.
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Kaylen et al. (1991) studied this question.
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