Arms control at the stage of research and development? —The case of inertial confinement fusion

This paper discusses some of the essential aspects of arms control at the research and development (R&D) stage of a project, using the example of inertial confinement fusion (ICF). This is a large R&D program with many potential military and civilian applications. Early in a project's life, it may be unclear what its military and civilian benefits will be: such ambivalence is a major obstacle to arms control at this stage of development. We investigate the feasibility of several of ICF's potential applications and outline their respective scientific requirements. It is shown that goals with civilian or military emphases lead to different paths of further R&D. Ways to determine the most probable end intentions of an “ambivalent” R&D program are discussed.