“Middling” Powers and Systemic Dis-Integration: Brazil, Canada, and Mexico in Comparative Perspective

Brazil, Canada, and Mexico rank among the world's largest economies and have long been active, and sometimes influential, participants in the post-war multilateral order. This article compares how the decay of that order affects each of them, combining a realist reading of classic integration theory with a strand of Latin American political analysis on international “insertion.” We argue that the institutional bargains underpinning post-war global and North American regimes are collapsing under declining US hegemony and rising domestic resistance in the US to liberal integration, and that no coherent alternative regime is emerging – only a more volatile, ad hoc, bargains-based order. This transition hits Canada and Mexico far harder than Brazil: their narrow, deep dependence on the US leaves them acutely exposed, while Brazil's broader, shallower global insertion insulates it from systemic disruption and preserves a stronger bargaining position. The findings challenge conventional “middle power” narratives about these states’ incentives and standing in global governance.