China's grain production and consumption are spatially mismatched, but the joint carbon–nitrogen consequences of interprovincial trade bridging this mismatch remain unclear. We applied a carbon–nitrogen footprint framework to evaluate rice, wheat and maize bilateral trade among 31 Chinese provinces for ten selected observation years between 2000 and 2022. Local self-supply counterfactual scenario was used as an analytical baseline. Interprovincial trade reduced national production-stage greenhouse gas emissions and reactive nitrogen losses in all observation years. In 2022, reductions reached 35.7 Mt CO 2 -eq and 1.17 Mt N-eq, or 9.7% and 16.3% of local self-supply burdens, and remained positive in uncertainty analyses. All three crops contributed positively, with maize providing the largest share of both benefits—48.3% of the GHG reduction and 66.8% of the reactive-N reduction. Provincial outcomes diverged: seven provinces had opposing greenhouse gas and nitrogen effects in 2022, with rice-exporting provinces showing higher greenhouse gas but lower nitrogen burdens relative to local self-supply, and maize- or wheat-exporting provinces showing the reverse. China's interprovincial trade in rice, wheat and maize delivers aggregate gains while revealing crop-driven provincial trade-offs.
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Jia et al. (2026) studied this question.
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