Putin’s red lines lost in translation? Distinguishing credible threats from reflexive control in coercive bargaining

This article probes the logic behind Russian President Vladimir Putin's nuclear saber-rattling associated with the war in Ukraine. The authors argue that contemporary debates typically misinterpret Putin's oblique coercive discourse by “mirror-imaging” Western-centric frameworks and focusing on consistency with external posture. Overlooked are insights from Russia's "reflexive control” that emphasizes opportunism, ambiguity, inconsistency, and indirect manipulation to shape adversary perceptions and decision-making. This claim is buttressed by leveraging large language models to discriminate trends in the frequency, intensity, and underlying logical elements to Putin's coercive public rhetoric. This reveals systematic “internal” consistency among patterns of “outwardly” incoherent discourse, as well as distinctions between rationales for Putin's red line and nuclear threat statements. The findings highlight a hybrid mix of elements of reflexive control with mainstream Western nuclear deterrence arguments. This holds implications for broadening theories of coercion and managing risks of inadvertent escalation in Russia's war on Ukraine and beyond.