Spatial mismatch and logical transition of basic education resource allocation in South Korea

Against the backdrop of sustained demographic decline driven by ultra-low fertility, the long-standing assumption that educational facility provision responds proportionally to local population change has become increasingly contested. Using annual time-series data from 228 basic local governments in South Korea between 2014 and 2024, this study examines how changes in the school-age population are associated with adjustments in overall school supply, encompassing both public and private schools as a proxy for local public service provision. Combining ordinary least squares regression, a dual-indicator classification framework, and spatial autocorrelation analysis, the study identifies temporal and spatial inconsistencies between changes in the school-age population and changes in the number of schools. The results reveal pronounced regional divergence: while school-age population has declined nationwide, more than half of local jurisdictions exhibit changes in the number of schools that are misaligned with demographic trajectories, most notably in the form of “over-adjustment,” where school expansion or retention occurs despite population contraction. Spatial analyses further show an increasing concentration of school-age population in the Seoul Metropolitan Area and major industrial centers, whereas school supply adjustments display a polarized west–east pattern. These findings point to a growing decoupling between demographic demand and educational infrastructure allocation, suggesting that the number of schools is increasingly shaped by planning priorities linked to industrial strategies and urban development policies rather than by population size alone. By empirically documenting this shift, the study contributes to broader debates on public service allocation and spatial governance under conditions of sustained population decline.