What shapes resident segments? A predictive model of sustainability representation of food festivals

Although it is widely acknowledged that residents' support is crucial for sustainable tourism development and opinions about sustainable tourism at food festivals can vary among residents, most studies assume that these differences occur in a vacuum, without explaining these differing opinions. This paper argues that differential opinions have associated explanations. This study applies the three-step latent class approach to examine data from 460 residents in the context of the Macau Food Festival. Initially, residents are grouped based on their views on sustainability representations to identify clusters and predict cluster membership. Grounded in social representation theory, the model-based cluster analysis revealed three distinct segments: The Unconvinced, Moderate Beneficiaries, and Beneficiaries. These segments reflect varying levels of sustainability perceptions regarding food festivals and are partially associated with differences in perceived community impacts, prosocial behaviors, place attachment, and some demographics. The Unconvinced cluster is disconnected from the event's sustainability outcomes. Moderate Beneficiaries show generally favorable but moderate perceptions, with less intense endorsement than Beneficiaries, particularly regarding authenticity, accessibility, and value for money. The Beneficiaries, the most supportive cluster, view the festival as culturally enriching, socially cohesive, and economically sustainable. Relative to the Unconvinced, residents in the Moderate Beneficiaries and Beneficiaries clusters were more likely to associate the festival with improvements in quality of life and community involvement while recognizing overcrowding as a festival-related cost, suggesting support can coexist with awareness of negative impacts. These results contribute to a value-attachment-behavior-demographic explanatory network that clearly differentiates residents with associated factors.