The Missing Partner: UAE National Statistics and the Mirror of Suriname's Gold Exports, 2019–2025

Institut Atlantique Sud Research Note No. 2. Institut Atlantique Sud Research Note No. 1 found that partner-reported imports of gold from Suriname exceed Suriname-reported exports, but could not measure 2024–2025 because the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had not reported those years to UN Comtrade. This note fills the gap with the UAE's own national statistics. For 2019–2023, UAE imports from Suriname in Harmonized System section XIV (precious metals), as published by the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre, coincide with the UAE's HS 7108 records in UN Comtrade to within USD 160 a year, and account for 99.8–99.96% of all UAE imports from Suriname. The national series is therefore the same series, not a proxy. With the UAE included, importing countries report 2.10 times the value, and an estimated 2.07–2.14 times the weight, of the gold Suriname reported exporting in 2024 — a gap of about 15–16 tonnes — against 1.00 and 0.98 in the calibration years 2021–2022. The 2025 reading, indeterminate in Note No. 1, shows an excess under both bounds (1.20–2.27 by weight). Monthly UAE data show no concentration of imports at year end. Over 2019–2025, partner-reported imports exceed Suriname-reported exports under both bounds in five of seven years, the two others being the calibration years. The note documents a discrepancy between official declarations; it does not attribute it to any actor. Data, code and hashes: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22902893