Mexico aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2050 relative to 2000 levels. Hydrogen is seen as a promising alternative for decarbonising the transport, industrial, and electricity generation sectors. This study presents five prospective scenarios for 2050 that explore different hypotheses for introducing hydrogen to catalyse decarbonization of the Mexican Energy System (MES), modelled using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software. Business-As-Usual (BAU), maintaining 2019 MES configuration; Decarbonization (DEC), introducing hydrogen only in the industrial sector; Market (MAR), following the pathway planned by the commercial sector; Policy (POL) driven, which installs as many hydrogen-based combined cycle plants as possible, and Net-Zero Development (NZD), achieving a hydrogen-based electricity generation by 2060. This analysis found that hydrogen can mitigate up to 16.32% of the CO2e emissions compared to BAU scenario in 2050 and save up to 13.58% of the natural gas required for power.
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Castro-Dominguez et al. (2026) studied this question.
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