Voting for the Climate? How the Climate Issue Relates to Voting Behaviour over Time in Germany

Climate change was one of the most salient issues in the 2021 German federal election and continues to shape public discourse. Drawing on the concept of issue voting, this paper examines how the climate issue relates to voting behaviour over time in Germany. While previous research has mainly focused on voting for Green parties in specific elections, less is known about how this relates to other parties and how it evolves over time. Using pooled cross-sectional data from the GLES (2017–2023), this study analyses how issue salience, position, distance, and perceived party competence relate to voting behaviour. The results reveal a divide between Green and right-wing parties’ voters, especially among voters of the radical-right populist AfD: high climate salience and pro-climate position increase the likelihood of voting for the Greens and decrease the likelihood of voting for AfD, with these effects strengthening slightly over time. Additionally, the climate issue is less relevant for voting for the Left Party and the SPD.