Contemporaneous and longitudinal analyses characterize associations between parental educational aspirations and adolescent depressive symptoms in China

Whether parental educational aspirations are associated with later adolescent depressive symptoms or mainly reflect same-wave family differences remains unresolved. Using four waves (2016–2022) of the China Family Panel Studies, we separated contemporaneous, prospective, reverse-direction, and within-person associations and verified aspiration reporters as each adolescent’s recorded mother or father. The 2022 core comprised 1,547 adolescents aged 10–15 years (weighted model $$N=1,428$$ ); prospective analyses covered 3,708 transitions among 2,532 individuals. In 2022, a one-category higher aspiration was associated with a 0.941-point lower symptom score ( $$b=-0.941$$ , 95% CI $$[-1.643,-0.240]$$ ). The negative association was not corroborated prospectively ( $$b=-0.140$$ , 95% CI $$[-0.473,0.192]$$ ) or within persons ( $$b=-0.099$$ , 95% CI $$[-0.538,0.340]$$ ); both intervals included zero. The reverse-direction coefficient attenuated and its interval crossed zero when the same parent reported at both waves; quadratic and three-wave indirect-path estimates were also imprecise. Together, these estimates distinguish a negative contemporaneous pattern from longitudinal estimates compatible with modest negative or small positive associations. Temporal order and reporter continuity are therefore essential when interpreting parental aspirations as correlates of adolescent depressive symptoms.