Problems and pitfalls in relating climate variability to population dynamics

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 32:143-149 (2006) - doi:10.3354/cr032143 Problems and pitfalls in relating climate variability to population dynamics Charles J. Krebs1,*, Dominique Berteaux2 1Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, 6270 University Boulevard, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada 2Canada Research Chair in Conservation of Northern Ecosystems, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, Québec G5L 381, Canada *Email: krebs@zoology.ubc.ca ABSTRACT: We discuss 3 methodological issues involved in climate-population dynamics research. Precise alternative hypotheses are the first requirement, and correlational studies are the weakest way to test the multiple working hypotheses required. Large-scale effects are difficult to investigate because of heterogeneity in environmental variables, and long-term predictions require more patience to test adequately. Multifactorial hypotheses are required for the investigation of climatic effects but these are too often vague and qualitative. Complex computer models can almost never be empirically validated and their predictions should be carefully examined. We illustrate these problems with 3 case studies: snowshoe hares in Canada, desert rodents in Arizona, and red kangaroos in Australia. Correlations abound but mechanistic understanding is limited because of long causal chains and indirect effects. KEY WORDS: Population dynamics · Hypothesis testing · Manipulative experiments · Mammals · Desert ecosystems PreviousNextExport citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 32, No. 2. Online publication date: October 13, 2006 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2006 Inter-Research.