Permanent Exits from Public Assistance: The Impact of Duration, Family, and Work

This article uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to answer two questions raised in the recent debate over welfare reform: (1) Is the length of time that a woman receives Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) associated with the likelihood of permanently leaving AFDC? (2) Are marital status, childbearing, and qualifications for work associated with permanently leaving AFDC? We define a permanent exit as leaving the AFDC rolls and not returning within two years. The answer to the first question is that the likelihood of permanently leaving AFDC decreases with the length of time that women receive benefits after adjusting for other attributes of individuals and their families. This finding is robust across several, but not all, specifications of the model of permanent exits. The answer to the second question is that marital status, the number of children, and qualifications for work, as well as the availability of employment, are associated with the likelihood of leaving AFDC permanently. The effects of these characteristics are robust across all of the different specifications used in the analysis.