Attempts to forecast or remedy state failure would benefit from a clearer view of the multiple pathways that can lead states to fail. This paper delineates five pathways: escalating ethnic conflicts, state predation, regional guerrilla rebellion, democratic collapse, and succession/reform crises in authoritarian states. Each of these five pathways involves changes in the legitimacy and effectiveness of regimes; state failures follow upon the loss of both legitimacy and effectiveness. Examples are provided and guidelines are offered for efforts to avert failure in fragile states.
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Jack A. Goldstone (2008) studied this question.
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