Predicting 3‐year mortality based on the tumor necrosis factor alpha concentration in low‐flux hemodialysis patients

Tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) is an inflammatory cytokine produced during acute inflammation. Few studies have evaluated the association between serum TNF-α and its receptors and their clinical outcomes in hemodialysis patients. However, a study assessing patients using a low-flux dialyzer reuse has not been conducted yet. The serum TNF-α concentrations of 319 prevalent hemodialysis patients (mean age, 45 ± 15 years; median duration of hemodialysis, 48 [interquartile range, 26-79] months; 185 males and 134 females) was examined to predict their 3-year mortality. The patients were divided into tertiles according to their serum TNF-α concentrations: T1 (n = 106; serum TNF-α concentration, <41.22 pg/mL), T2 (n = 106; serum TNF-α level, from 41.22 to 67.28 pg/mL), and T3 (n = 107; serum TNF-α concentration, ≥ 67.29 pg/mL). During the 36-month follow-up period, a total of 50 (15.7%) patients died from all causes. The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the all-cause mortality in T3 was significantly higher compared to that in T1 and T2 (log-rank test, P < .001). The serum TNF-α level was a significant predictor for all-cause mortality (area under the curve = 0.887, P < .001, cutoff value, 89.812 pg/mL, sensitivity = 76%, specificity = 96.3%). The serum TNF-α level was a better predictor of mortality than the duration of hemodialysis and serum albumin, serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and serum beta-2 microglobulin concentrations. The serum TNF-α concentration was a good predictor of the 3-year mortality in low-flux hemodialysis patients.