Care work career plans in 30 OECD countries, 2000–2022

Leveraging two decades of Programme for International Student Assessment data (2000–2022) for over 1 million students across 30 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, this study investigates adolescents’ evolving expectations to enter care-related careers. Multilevel modeling reveals an enduring gender divide: by 2022, young women remain three times more likely than young men to anticipate entering the care economy. However, selective reorientation is underway. Career plans are surging in healthcare while stagnating in teaching, with care-oriented youth overwhelmingly targeting credentialed, high-status roles. Ultimately, while institutional factors such as educational tracking and remuneration matter moderately, gender remains the most consistent and substantively powerful predictor of care-related career plans, a pattern consistent with the enduring influence of gendered cultural schemas.