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Introduction: Food insecurity affects over one in four UK children. Free school meals (FSMs) may mitigate some adverse effects yet how well they reach food-insecure children is unclear. In September 2026, eligibility criteria will be changed but provision will not be universal. This study provides an analysis of FSM reach among food-insecure children and the potential impact of the 2026 eligibility changes. Methods: Data from the 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 Family Resources Survey were merged, yielding 6563 children aged 8-17 in England. Household food insecurity over 30 days was assessed using a validated measure, with marginal, low and very low food security classified as food-insecure. Weighted proportions of food-insecure children not receiving FSMs were estimated. Logistic regression identified characteristics associated with food insecurity among those not receiving FSMs and non-uptake among eligible children. Projected impacts of 2026 eligibility changes were estimated under two scenarios. Results: 70.6% (95% CI 68.0% to 73.2%) of food-insecure children did not receive FSMs. Among these, 80.2% (95% CI 77.5% to 82.9%) were ineligible, while 19.8% (95% CI 17.1% to 22.5%) were eligible but not taking them up. Household characteristics associated with food insecurity included black/African/Caribbean ethnicity (aOR: 2.37, 95% CI 1.64 to 3.42) and disabled members (aOR: 1.71, 95% CI 1.41 to 2.06). Non-uptake was more common among older pupils (aOR per year: 1.19, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.28) and households without disability (aOR: 3.53, 95% CI 1.91 to 6.51). In modelled scenarios, over 270 000 children may gain eligibility in 2026, yet 44.5% (95% CI 41.7% to 47.2%) of food-insecure children could remain ineligible. Conclusions: 2026 FSM eligibility changes are likely to reach more food-insecure children, but many may remain ineligible, particularly those facing structural disadvantage. These findings highlight the limitations of benefit-based criteria. Universal FSM provision has been proposed as a more equitable approach, with the potential to ensure that all food-insecure children are reached.
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Arnold et al. (2026) studied this question.
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