Valuing ecosystem services in marine ranching development: evidence from a choice experiment in Qingdao, China

Marine ranching is increasingly regarded as an important mode of coastal fisheries upgrading and ecosystem restoration. Robust valuation of its ecosystem services is therefore essential for informing public investment decisions and policy design for the sector's sustainable development. Using Qingdao, China, as a case study, this study constructs ecosystem service scenarios through a choice experiment. A mixed logit model specified in willingness-to-pay space is employed to estimate the public's willingness to pay for different attributes, and compensating surplus is used to derive the total ecosystem service value. The results indicate that respondents exhibit positive willingness to pay for all attributes, with the highest point estimate observed for water clarity, followed by marine ecological landscape function, biological habitat area, and non-economic biomass. Significant heterogeneity is observed in respondents' preferences for ecosystem service improvement options. Age, education, household size, occupation-related background, ecological value orientation, personal norm awareness, and perceived cost burden all significantly influence respondents' choices. Based on the compensating surplus estimates, under the specified 10-year policy improvement scenarios and benchmark assumptions, including an 8% discount rate and a constant annual welfare flow, the present value of ecosystem services provided by marine ranching in Qingdao ranges from CNY 15.99 billion to CNY 31.98 billion. These findings provide empirical support for the quantitative valuation of marine ranching ecosystem services and offer policy-relevant insights for their management and development.