The climate-conflict nexus and environmental governance in southern Thailand

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The connection between climate change and peacebuilding is increasingly recognised globally, yet little is known about how these dynamics unfold within contexts of ongoing violent secessionist conflict. This study explores the conflict-peace-climate nexus in the protracted ethno-nationalist conflict in Thailand’s southernmost provinces, drawing on analyses and recommendations from local civil society organisations. It argues that environmental governance deficits are an important factor in the persistence of the conflict, and that addressing these deficiencies through inclusive and devolved decision-making can increase the likelihood of achieving sustainable peace. The southernmost region faces recurring floods, rising sea levels, declining coastal and marine resources, and the adverse effects of industrial development – all of which exacerbate existing grievances, deepening the longstanding resentment of the Thai State that has fuelled violence. More responsive and accountable responses to environmental degradation could support efforts to improve relations between the local population and the state, contributing to the potential for conflict resolution. Integrating climate-related environmental concerns into the dialogue between the government and separatist movements, alongside the inclusion of civil society in the peace process, could address critical governance deficits, strengthen local participation, and enhance prospects for an environmentally sustainable and durable peace.