When the emperor gets the blame: unpacking protest targeting in Xi Jinping’s China

Does the nationwide ‘White Paper Movement’ protesting against zero-COVID measures by the central government signal a threat to Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule? This article explores protest dynamics under the Xi Jinping administration, examining patterns of grievances directed at different government levels. Drawing on a comprehensive dataset spanning 2012–2022, we analyse protest characteristics and contextual factors to identify the determinants of protest targeting. Our findings reveal that protests articulating ideological demands, occurring in urban hubs, and involving sizable crowds, particularly in Beijing, are more inclined to target the central government. These insights gain significance when contrasted with protests aimed at local institutions. This study advances our comprehension of protest patterns within a resilient authoritarian framework, offering insights into social stability and regime durability post-White Paper Movement.