The Dependence Structure of New Quality Productive Forces on Technology Finance: A Quantile-On-Quantile Regression Approach

This study investigates how technology finance (TF) contributes to new quality productive forces (NQPF) by applying quantile-on-quantile regression and two-way fixed effects, along with a two-step mechanism analysis, to Chinese provincial panel data. We analyze the complete dependence structure of NQPF on TF, the heterogeneous effects of TF on NQPF, and the underlying mechanisms. The findings indicate that the empowering effect of TF on NQPF varies with the developmental stage of TF itself, evolving from a strong initial enhancement to structural differentiation in the mid-term, and eventually to diminishing marginal returns. Conversely, the impact of TF is also shaped by the stage of NQPF development, showing strong augmentation in the early to mid-phases before transitioning to a pattern of increase and subsequent decrease in the later phase. Furthermore, this empowering effect exhibits significant heterogeneity, being more pronounced in the eastern region, under pilot policy status, and at higher levels of economic growth. Mechanism analysis identifies technological innovation as the primary transmission channel, whereas the alleviation of financing constraints is insignificant. Although the channels of industrial structure upgrading and improved resource allocation are statistically significant, their impacts are markedly less pronounced. These findings provide valuable guidance for formulating differentiated TF policies to effectively empower NQPF development across regions.