The nexus between climate change, natural resources, and small arms demand: a panel data analysis

Building on previous research that links the adverse societal impacts of climate change to a heightened risk of armed conflict, this study explores a fundamental underlying mechanism of this relationship―the potential for conflict parties to anticipate and prepare for these risks by augmenting their armed capacities. However, the extent of this increase is likely contingent upon the natural resource conditions present in a given country. Climate change may intensify violent competition for resources, particularly in countries characterized by either resource abundance or scarcity, further driving the demand for arms. This research provides compelling evidence supporting this hypothesis, especially in the context of developing countries, which are disproportionately affected by the intersection of climate change, resource competition, fragile governance, and recurrent security threats.