Where the Candidates Stand: Presidential Candidate Announcement Speeches and Success in Nomination Contests

This study examines how modern presidential candidates strategically and ideologically position themselves in their campaign announcement speeches. We perform a network analysis of announcement speeches from 27 Democratic and 9 Republican presidential contenders in the 2020 and 2024 presidential nomination cycles, respectively, based on the idea that these statements represent fundamental narratives and issue priorities prior to interactions between the candidates, voters, and journalists. We create a candidate-to-candidate network by mapping candidates’ rhetorical alignment and evaluating linguistic proximity. We additionally examine a two-mode network of candidates and issues to assess the importance and peripherality of both actors and issues. The results validate two main hypotheses: Candidates with more rhetorically connected speeches were generally more central within the party’s ideological network and fared better in polls and early primary contests, and issues commonly discussed among the candidates tended to be more central to overall party priorities.