Toward sustainable energy transition through green transport policy: Evidence from low-carbon transport system pilot

Sustainable energy transition is a crucial step toward sustainable development, yet little is known about how it can be achieved through the transport sector. Utilizing data from 2005–2019 for cities in China, this study investigates how low-carbon transport system pilots contribute to the urban low-carbon energy transition using a difference-in-differences approach. The study finds that low-carbon transport system pilots significantly contribute to the low-carbon energy transition. The low-carbon energy transition index for pilot cities increased by an average of 3.324 compared to non-pilot cities. Mechanism analysis shows that LCTS promotes LCET through both direct and indirect channels. Directly, the policy facilitates adjustments in the urban energy structure by reducing the share of fossil energy. Indirectly, it promotes LCET by improving green total factor productivity, stimulating green technological innovation, enhancing transport infrastructure, and encouraging greater use of public transport. Furthermore, the effect of LCTS on LCET is heterogeneous across cities. The positive effect is stronger in cities with stricter environmental regulation, a larger number of firms, more advanced transport development, and steeper average slopes, whereas it is relatively weaker in manufacturing cities. These findings provide valuable insights for relevant authorities to formulate low-carbon transport policies and accelerate cities’ energy transition.