Institutional trust in authoritarian regimes: evidence from Central Asia

Authoritarian regimes must cultivate forms of political legitimacy that compensate for the absence of competitive electoral accountability. Institutional trust is a central component of this legitimacy, shaping citizen compliance, regime support, and political stability. This article examines patterns and determinants of institutional trust across four Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, using data from the Life in Transition Survey IV. The study investigates whether citizens differentiate between institutions or instead express generalised regime trust, characteristic of authoritarian political systems. Results demonstrate high internal consistency across institutional trust indicators, suggesting that citizens evaluate state institutions as components of a broader regime structure rather than as autonomous actors. Executive institutions (Presidency and government/cabinet ministers) consistently receive the highest trust levels, while representative institutions such as parliaments and political parties receive comparatively lower support. Our analysis indicates that economic wellbeing, interpersonal trust, rurality, and perceptions of fairness significantly predict institutional trust.