Econometric Assessment and Forecasting of the Role of Industrial Zones, Technology Parks and Clusters in Regional Economic Development in Kashkadarya Region

Industrial zones, technology parks, and clusters are increasingly recognized as important instruments of place-based regional development, particularly through their potential to attract investment, stimulate industrial diversification, generate employment, promote innovation, and strengthen regional competitiveness. Recent international research emphasizes that the effectiveness of such instruments depends not only on the concentration of enterprises and infrastructure but also on the quality of regional governance, institutional coordination, innovation linkages, and integration into local value chains. This study aims to econometrically assess and forecast the role of industrial zones, technology parks, and clusters in regional economic development in Kashkadarya Region. The research evaluates the relationship between the development of industrial and innovation-oriented territorial formations and key indicators of regional economic performance, including gross regional product, industrial output, investment activity, employment, labor productivity, exports, and economic diversification. Panel-data econometric methods, comparative analysis, structural analysis, and forecasting approaches are proposed to identify the contribution of industrial zones, technology parks, and clusters to regional economic dynamics. The study also considers differences among districts of Kashkadarya Region and evaluates the potential effects of expanding investment, innovation capacity, technological infrastructure, and cluster-based cooperation. The expected results provide an empirical basis for identifying the principal factors influencing regional economic development and for forecasting development trends for the medium term. The findings can contribute to the formulation of place-based industrial policy, improvement of regional investment mechanisms, strengthening of innovation ecosystems, and more effective integration of industrial zones, technology parks, and clusters into the regional economy. The study is particularly relevant to Uzbekistan because UNCTAD identifies science, technology and innovation parks as potential instruments for innovation-based growth and economic development in the country.