Data-driven decarbonisation strategies for ships, Part 2: Financial projections

This paper investigates the economic feasibility of adopting various low-carbon solutions using a data-driven conceptual design framework applied to a 10-year-old Panamax bulk carrier as an example. This study compares multiple decarbonisation pathways, including hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, biodiesel, post-combustion onboard carbon capture, and onboard hydrogen production with carbon capture, over the period 2025–2050. Estimates of the total cost (C Total ) and CO₂ avoidance costs (C CO 2 ) incorporated fuel costs, cargo capacity losses, CAPEX, regulatory penalties and surplus rewards. Two years of high-frequency historical data were analysed. From an operational perspectives, reducing idle time and optimising voyages lowered the vessel’s CII by 9% (from 3.80 to 3.47 gCO₂/dwt.nm), and to 3.32gCO 2 /dwt.nm when drifting and idling modes were excluded. It became evident that voyage optimisation must be accompanied by other low carbon alternatives to meet emissions compliance. The reference vessel’s C Total reached $172 million with 60% attributed to penalties. By contrast, biodiesel and SMR-based CCS pathways reduced C Total to $104–136 million, when surplus credit is included. The sensitivity of key cost components was assessed under conservative, moderate, and optimistic scenarios. Under optimistic regulations, low emissions biofuel and SMR-CCS achieved negative C CO2 (−$141 to −$177 per ton CO 2 ), with SMR pathways appearing as a lower-risk investment option. These findings support investment in low-carbon technologies as a viable pathway to achieving emissions compliance, improving ship performance, and enhancing long-term economic sustainability.