Global coal mining carbon emissions: Spatiotemporal evolution patterns, driving mechanisms and China's decoupling path under carbon neutrality

Global climate governance faced a critical window to achieve the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target. As a key part of coal's full-life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, coal mining emissions became a core focus for global methane mitigation and the coal sector's low-carbon transition However, long-term spatiotemporal patterns, nonlinear drivers, and mine-level empirical evidence remain unclear. This study developed a novel multi-scale analytical framework that bridges global macro-level patterns and mine-level micro-level heterogeneity by integrating 44-year global panel data (1981–2024) with mine-level data from 12,568 Chinese mines. This cross-scale integration, combined with phased random forest–SHAP modeling, IPCC Tier 2 estimation, operation-level emission tracing, and LMDI decomposition, enables consistent empirical analysis across scales—from global spatiotemporal evolution to mine-specific technological mechanisms. Results show global coal mining emissions experienced three phases: moderate growth (1981–1999), rapid expansion (2000–2013), and decelerated growth (2014–2024), with an inverted-V marginal emission intensity. High-emission areas concentrated in East Asia, South Asia, central-western Europe, and central-eastern North America, with an eastward shift of the emission center. Six major coal-producing countries formed four evolutionary patterns. The emission driving effect also displayed an inverted V-shape, peaking during 2000–2012 and weakening markedly after 2014, with obvious cross-country heterogeneity. China's coal mining achieved decoupling: output increased by 2.78% while methane emissions decreased by 8.84%. Mine-level results revealed large intensity differences across methods, gas grades, and scales; heading operations were the main bottleneck, and mining depth had a nonlinear threshold effect. LMDI decomposition showed structural optimization contributed 78.7% to the emission intensity decline and technological progress 21.3%. This study clarifies the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of global coal mining emissions, reveals China's decoupling pathways, and supports low-carbon transition and methane mitigation.