The impact of climate change on grain production in the agro-pastoral ecotone

Using panel data from 38 prefecture-level units in China’s agro-pastoral ecotone (2000–2023), this study examines the effects of climate change on grain production. Warming-and-wetting conditions have positive effects on grain output, with precipitation exhibiting the most robust contribution, while climate-risk effects are heterogeneous. We further examine effective irrigated area and the industrialization of new-type agribusiness entities as potential transmission channels, as well as agricultural development as a moderating factor. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that these effects vary across terrain, regions, and agricultural structures. These findings highlight the importance of local adaptive capacity and differentiated regional responses to climate risk.