Geographical diversification and international competitiveness of copper ore and concentrate exports: evidence from the Pacific Alliance countries

This study examines the relationship between geographical market diversification and the international competitiveness of copper ore and concentrate exports from Pacific Alliance countries during 2017–2024. Using a quantitative, non-experimental longitudinal design, trade flows from Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru to six major destination markets were analysed. Geographical concentration was measured using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), whilst competitiveness was assessed using the Normalised Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (NRCA). Kruskal–Wallis tests, Dunn’s post hoc tests with Holm adjustment and Spearman’s rank correlation were applied. The results reveal substantial cross-country heterogeneity. Chile exhibited the lowest average market concentration and strongest revealed comparative advantage, whereas Colombia and Mexico showed highly concentrated export structures. Peru occupied an intermediate position whilst maintaining positive competitiveness in most years. Significant cross-country differences were found for both HHI and NRCA. However, the association between market concentration and revealed comparative advantage was moderate and negative but not statistically significant (ρ = −0.344; p = .054). Thus, the proposed significant relationship between diversification and competitiveness was not supported. The findings suggest that diversification and revealed comparative advantage are distinct but complementary dimensions of export performance, with diversification primarily contributing to reduced market dependence and greater export resilience.