International tourism plays an important role in promoting economic growth in developing economies, particularly when supported by digital infrastructure and urban development. Following the rapid expansion of China’s tourism industry since 2000 and the parallel rise of digital finance, understanding the dynamics of tourism-led growth has become increasingly important for achieving balanced regional development. This study examines the relationships between international tourism, urban population, digital finance, and provincial economic growth in China from 2005 to 2024. To capture nonlinear dynamics, threshold regression analysis is applied, complemented by dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares to ensure robustness. The results show that international tourism has a significant positive impact on economic growth in linear models, while urbanization and digital finance also strengthen provincial economic performance. Threshold analysis reveals that tourism effects become stronger beyond specific thresholds. When international tourist arrivals exceed 1.419 (logged) and tourism receipts surpass 6.0504 (logged), the elasticity of tourism on provincial output increases by approximately 24–28%. Furthermore, digital finance and tourism exhibit asymmetric effects on tourist arrivals across provinces. These findings highlight the importance of nonlinear dynamics in assessing tourism-led growth and suggest that policymakers should promote digital tourism strategies to support sustainable regional development.
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Imran et al. (2026) studied this question.
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