Perceived Gang Protection, Violent Victimization, and Gang Status Transition in Early Adolescence

Gang violence accounts for approximately half of violent crime in the United States. While youth join gangs for protection, they often face an increased risk of violence. There is less research on how expected utility varies throughout the process of joining and leaving gangs. This violence paradox highlights the disillusion of perception vs. victimization in gang joining and desistance. Using data from the G.R.E.A.T. II evaluation, we examine how perceptions of gang protection and violent victimization affect youth gang joining and desistance under a contemporary rational choice framework. Results indicate that while perceived protection is associated with gang joining, gang membership increases victimization risk without reducing perceived protection. However, we detect no evidence that violent victimization or perceptions of protection affect the desistance, suggesting a potential psychological trap – despite being at higher risks of victimization, youth gang members may believe they must further rely on their gangs for protection.