Rising Star of Robusta: Dynamics of Vietnam’s Coffee Export Competitiveness in the US and Japanese Markets, 2003 to 2022

Vietnam is the world’s second-largest coffee producer and the leading Robusta exporter. This study assesses its export competitiveness in the United States and Japan from 2003 to 2022 using the dynamic revealed comparative advantage (DRCA) method. Vietnam performed strongly in several periods but shifted to weaker positions in recent years, reflecting growing pressure from competition, changing consumer preferences, quality constraints, environmental risks, and reliance on bulk Robusta. Sustained competitiveness will require improved farming practices, stronger post-harvest quality, value-added processing, supply-chain efficiency, and greater participation in premium and specialty markets. These changes are also important for improving returns for coffee farmers.