Understanding housing consumption behavior for sustainable urban development: the influence of perceived value and perceived risk on purchase intention in China's higher-tier urban housing markets

Sustainable urban development requires a profound understanding of housing consumption dynamics, as housing constitutes both a fundamental human need and a critical determinant of urban social sustainability. This study examines the psychological correlates of housing purchase intention in China's higher-tier urban housing markets, focusing on the interplay among perceived value, perceived risk, and socioeconomic heterogeneity. Drawing upon perceived value theory, perceived risk theory, and the theory of planned behavior, we model perceived value (comprising price value, emotional value, social value, and quality value) as the independent variable, perceived risk (comprising transaction subject risk, transaction object risk, and environmental risk) as the mediator, and purchase intention as the dependent variable. Survey data from 521 consumers, predominantly located in first-tier and new first-tier Chinese cities, were analyzed using hierarchical multiple regression and bootstrap estimation of indirect effects. Perceived value and its dimensions are positively associated with purchase intention, with quality value carrying the largest standardized coefficient within the estimated model, and perceived risk shows a statistically significant indirect association consistent with the proposed mediation model. A binary income-group variable (monthly income dichotomized at 10,000 CNY) significantly moderates these associations: the positive association between price value and purchase intention is stronger among low-income consumers, whereas that between quality value and purchase intention is stronger among high-income consumers, although the incremental explanatory power of the interaction terms is limited. Complementing the consumer survey, an analytic hierarchy process based on the judgments of 20 real estate professionals identified brand trust, quality-price superiority, location satisfaction, living convenience, and satisfaction with floor area and layout as the top five indicators of consumer perceived value. Because purchase intention rather than actual housing consumption behavior was measured, these findings may indirectly inform differentiated housing supply strategies and policy design aligned with SDG 11.