Structural analysis and predictive model of regional economic growth in the context of import localization

The article considers the import dependence of the Republic of Tatarstan in the structural context of imported product groups. The methodological basis is a descriptive analysis of empirical data characterizing the commodity structure of imports supplied to the region. Based on the assessments, the authors of the article have determined the bottlenecks that make the Republic of Tatarstan dependent on the import of goods. Economic and mathematical models have been constructed to assess the impact of the most critical imports supplied to the region on its economic sustainability. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the importance of balancing import substitution efforts with economic openness. Tatarstan's integration into global value chains, diversification of supplier countries, and strategies to reduce reliance on critical imports are vital for long-term economic sustainability.