Mapping heatwave vulnerability of tourism destinations under IPCC framework: a national GIS-based assessment for Iran

Heatwaves, as a major consequence of climate change, pose increasing threats to tourism destinations, tourist health, and travel experience quality due to their rising frequency, intensity, and duration. However, comprehensive spatial assessments of tourism destination vulnerability to heatwaves remain limited, particularly at the national scale and in arid and semi-arid regions. This study develops an integrated framework for evaluating and mapping the vulnerability of Iran’s tourism destinations to heatwave hazards based on the vulnerability concept of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), in which vulnerability is a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Climatic, remote sensing (RS), environmental, hydrological, vegetation, air quality, infrastructure, and tourism-related spatial variables were normalized into criteria within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. Criterion weights were determined using the Best-Worst Method (BWM), and the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) approach was applied to generate component maps, which were combined through a weighted intersection overlay model to produce the vulnerability map. Results showed that 35.53% of Iran’s territory has moderate exposure, while 30.93% falls into high and very high exposure categories. High and very high adaptive capacity covers 55.59% of the country, whereas high and very high sensitivity accounts for 36.71%. The final vulnerability map revealed that 20.95% of the area has high and very high vulnerability, mainly concentrated in central, southwestern, and southern Iran, while lower vulnerability occurs in northwestern and northern regions. At the provincial level, Qom, Khuzestan, Bushehr, and Tehran had the largest shares of high and very high vulnerability. The Kruskal-Wallis test confirmed significant differences among tourism destination types (p < 0.001), with catering, accommodation, and recreational and service centers showing the highest vulnerability. This study provides a GIS-based framework integrating the IPCC AR4 vulnerability concept, RS, and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) to support heatwave vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning for tourism destinations.