The ecosystem health of Tarim river basin: Spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces

The ecosystem health of inland river basins in arid regions is crucial for maintaining water resource security and oasis stability. To reveal the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms, this study assessed the ecosystem health of the Tarim River Basin—a typical arid inland river basin in China—from 2000 to 2023 using the Vigor–Organization–Resilience ( VOR ) model within a runoff–generation–runoff–consumption–desert zoning framework, integrating coefficient–of–variation, Hurst–exponent, and GeoDetector analyses. The results showed that: (1) Ecosystem health exhibited a pronounced west–east gradient: high values were concentrated in the runoff generation zone and oasis patches, whereas low values prevailed in the desert hinterland; the basin–wide mean EHI remained low with mild interannual fluctuations and no clear increasing trend. (2) The grade structure was dominated by “Poor” and “Relatively poor” levels, with localized upgrades mainly in the runoff generation zone and parts of the runoff consumption zone, indicating limited ecological recovery against a background of persistent desert degradation. (3) Annual evaporation, annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, altitude, and population density were the factors most strongly associated with the spatial pattern of the EHI , their explanatory power varied markedly over time and among zones, and interaction effects were generally stronger than individual effects. Natural factors exhibited the highest single–factor explanatory power for the macro–scale pattern, whereas human–activity factors contributed mainly through interaction effects in the runoff consumption zone. This study provides a typical case for ecosystem health assessment in arid inland river basins, and the revealed zonal driving mechanisms offer a scientific basis for differentiated ecological protection and adaptive governance.