Cognitive skills and long-term life outcomes: evidence from 19 years of PISA 2000 follow-up surveys in Switzerland

This study examines the long-term predictive validity of cognitive skills measured at the end of compulsory schooling by drawing on nearly two decades of longitudinal data collected by the Swiss TREE study. TREE has followed the participants of PISA since 2000; they are now in their mid-thirties. While previous research has primarily focused on short-term educational and early labor market outcomes, evidence on the relationship of PISA-assessed skills and achievements in various life domains in adulthood remains scarce. We analyze how reading literacy measured at age 15 is associated with a wide range of life outcomes at age 35, including educational attainment, labor market success, health, subjective wellbeing, and political interest. The results show that reading skills predict tertiary educational attainment and are positively related to income and occupational status, with educational attainment mediating these associations. These findings demonstrate that reading literacy measured in adolescence have substantial long-term implications in Switzerland. Reading literacy also shows a modest but significant relationship with political interest, whereas no associations are found for self-assessed health or wellbeing. Our study provides further evidence on the long-term rewards of early skills and contributes to debates on the role of international large-scale assessments in understanding life course trajectories.