Methods for evaluating compliance with and the effectiveness of lead shot restrictions in Europe

Lead pellets from shotgun cartridges (lead shot) present health risks to birds that ingest them mistakenly for grit or food and to birds and people that ingest them and their fragments embedded in the meat of wild-shot game species. UK and EU agencies have assessed these risks under chemicals regulations (UK REACH/EU REACH). In April 2026 the UK government regulated to ban the placing on the market (sale and importation) and use of shot containing ≥1% lead from 1st April 2029 and the European Commission published a broadly similar draft regulatory amendment in 2025. Partial regulatory lead shot bans existed previously in various European countries for shooting over wetlands and/or of wildfowl, and for all hunting in Denmark and the Netherlands. Voluntary restrictions have been attempted, including a voluntary national cessation of using lead shot for hunting proposed by UK shooting organisations, which was ineffective. Where measured, compliance with partial (wetland/wildfowl) national statutory bans was generally low. This contrasts with Denmark where compliance with the complete ban is high. Effective monitoring will be needed to evaluate both compliance with new UK and proposed EU restrictions and their effectiveness at reducing identified risks to human and wildlife health. Here we review academic articles, grey literature and government reports to identify strengths and weaknesses of different monitoring approaches. Self-reporting by hunters is a poor measure of compliance. In some countries, including the UK, national Statutory Residues Surveillance (SRS) data regarding lead concentrations in wild game meat appears inappropriate for measuring human health risk-reduction because the lead concentrations reported are substantially lower than those reported in the scientific literature for meat from hunted game available for human consumption. SRS schemes have potential for monitoring if current anomalies are adequately explained and methods modified. In the UK, recording of all sales and purchases of shotgun cartridges is required by law, but effective compliance monitoring will require additional measures, e.g., because of possible illegal purchases and/or stockpiling, self-loading, and use of pre-existing stocks. Measuring the effectiveness of restrictions in reducing risks to human and wildlife health requires information on residual risks associated with the <1% lead permitted in shot, and the potential for legacy shot to be consumed by birds. Findings from monitoring may require consideration of additional mitigation measures. We recommend that, in addition to sales monitoring, a comprehensive monitoring scheme should include: (1) testing intact cartridges carried by hunters to determine whether they contain lead shot, and extraction and identification of shot types from the meat of a representative sample of gamebirds (compliance); (2) analysis of lead concentrations in muscle meat from a representative sample of game species available in the human food retail market (human health risk); (3) analysis of the prevalence of shot ingestion, elevated tissue lead concentrations and causes of death in wildfowl and raptors (wild bird health risk). We describe both simple and advanced methods for identifying the principal metallic element in shot and for identifying and partitioning the origin of lead in the tissues of wildlife. We recommend that monitoring should begin when regulations are adopted and continue throughout any transition period and for at least 5 years after a ban is implemented, until compliance and risk-reduction is adequate. Many of our results are similarly relevant to Japan, which plans to transition to the use of non-lead shot for all hunting, and to other jurisdictions that may consider this in future.