Biodiversity credit automation poses new risks

Biodiversity credits are being pushed as a means to fund nature conservation. Typically defined as a certificate representing an uplift in biodiversity additional to what would have occurred otherwise, the appeal of biodiversity credits is that outcomes for biodiversity can be bought and sold transparently on a market. Unsolved debate on credits has concerned additionality, leakage, and permanence, and the extent to which biodiversity can be captured by an individual unit. Our point is complementary, but different. Whilst debates on credit methodology play out, rapid developments in technology are occurring. Near-future technology over the next 5-10 years could enable new forms of automated credit system, bringing down the costs on project administration and monitoring, and providing a digital trace of biodiversity uplift. However, automated credit systems, particularly those combining AI agents with spaceborne biodiversity monitoring and programmable payment, could also create new problems emergent from over-automation.