Assessing future offshore wind energy potential in proposed Australian offshore zones under changing climate conditions

Offshore wind energy has experienced a global surge in recent years, with an increasing number of countries planning its utilization. Australia has recently declared the first marine areas suitable for installing offshore wind farms. This study analyzes the marine wind energy potential in these areas both in southeastern and southwestern Australia considering the impact of climate change. To achieve this, climate projections from the CMIP6 project were dynamically downscaled generating high-resolution data. The WRF simulation analyzed here projects an increase in the offshore wind energy resource in the near future (2030–2059) in all defined zones under the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios. Moreover, the marine wind resource was classified for this upcoming period. The top classification was achieved for the proposed area on the southwest coast (Bunbury area). The proposed zones in southeastern Australia also received a high rating (5 out of 7), except for the Illawarra area. Finally, the theoretical energy production potential was calculated considering different turbine sizes ranging from 10 MW to 18 MW, as well as the capacity factor. The areas with the highest production potential are Gippsland 3 and Bass Strait, with annual production close to or exceeding 100 GWh year −1 for the 18 MW turbine and around 60 GWh year −1 for the 10 MW turbine.