Multi-scenario simulation of the co-evolution between production-living-ecological space conflict mitigation and carbon balance in Jiangsu province

Rapid urbanization and industrialization have intensified competition among production, living, and ecological spaces (PLES), leading to escalating land use conflicts and carbon imbalances. However, critical knowledge gaps remain. Existing studies have largely examined spatial conflict and carbon balance in isolation, and multi-scenario simulations have predominantly prioritized single objectives — economic growth or ecological protection — over synergistic pathways that jointly address conflict mitigation and carbon reduction. To address this gap, we developed an integrated analytical framework coupling spatial conflict index (SCI) measurement, carbon balance accounting, and the intPLUS model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of PLES conflict and carbon balance in Jiangsu Province, China, from 2000 to 2020, and to simulate four 2030 scenarios: natural development (ND), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and a novel conflict-balanced low-carbon synergy (CBLSC) scenario. A four-quadrant conflict-carbon analysis and Geodetector were used to identify synergies, trade-offs, and driving mechanisms. Results show that from 2000–2020, spatial conflict intensified significantly, with high-conflict areas concentrated in southern Jiangsu and the Yangtze River belt, closely linked to construction land expansion and rising carbon emissions. By 2030, the ED scenario yields the highest spatial conflict (mean SCI = 0.43) and net carbon emissions (117.70 Mt), while the EP scenario minimizes net emissions (81.14 Mt) but limits development flexibility. Notably, the CBLSC scenario achieves the lowest mean conflict value (0.35) and moderate net emissions (87.14 Mt), effectively mitigating high-conflict-high-carbon clusters and demonstrating superior balance between conflict alleviation and low-carbon transition. Geodetector results reveal that socioeconomic factors, particularly nighttime light intensity, GDP, and population, dominate the spatial differentiation of conflict-carbon coupling, with transportation accessibility playing a supporting role. We conclude that embedding conflict mitigation and carbon balance objectives into land use simulation provides a more effective pathway for territorial spatial optimization in developed regions. The CBLSC scenario offers a practical governance strategy for Jiangsu and similar high-density areas to achieve low-conflict, low-carbon, and spatially coordinated development.