Does Multi-Layer Digital Disclosure Predict Technological Recombination? Evidence from Novel ICT–Production Technology Patent Combinations in Chinese Manufacturing

Annual reports increasingly mention digital technologies, but whether multi-layer disclosure predicts technological recombination is unclear. We classify disclosure into data infrastructure, intelligent analytics, and business execution, and define complete disclosure as the presence of all three. We track invention patents containing firm-first combinations of information and communication technology (ICT) and production technology. The sample matches 2017–2021 reports for 2,669 Chinese manufacturers to patent histories from 1985 to 2024, yielding 10,478 firm-year observations. After controlling for digital disclosure, prior patents, firm characteristics, and high-dimensional fixed effects, complete disclosure is associated with a 5.26% higher value of one plus the novel-combination application count three years later and a 4.01 percentage-point higher probability of at least one application. The association is stronger among larger firms. Complete disclosure also predicts more applications granted within two years but not a higher grant probability conditional on filing. Out-of-time predictive gains are detectable but small. Independent coding shows that complete disclosure is not equivalent to technology adoption, while strict patent co-classification enriches for substantive links between digital technologies and production processes. For investors, regulators, and managers, multi-layer disclosure is a conditional signal of future recombination, not evidence of deployment, patent quality, commercialization, or causal performance.