A FINPLAN Analysis of a 300 MW Nuclear Plant at Obotan for Ghana's Integrated Aluminium Industry

Executive Summary Key Findings Ghana’s ambition to modernize the aluminium industry creates an electricity problem. Moving from bauxite extraction towards alumina refining, higher VALCO utilisation and downstream manufacturing needs reliable, low-carbon power at industrial scale. This paper tests an illustrative 300 MW nuclear power at Obotan as an industrial-power case. Under the balanced FINPLAN assumptions the project is financially viable. Shareholder NPV is positive at GHS1,734.227 million and IRR is 16.53%, and the first dividend of GHS738.488 million is paid in 2033 and rises every year thereafter. Viability depends most on the electricity tariff. At the lower tariffs modelled, the project turns value-negative and the first dividend slips a year, while higher tariffs raise the return and bring dividends earlier. Fuel cost and the export-credit rate change the strength of the return but do not overturn viability across the ranges tested. Recommendations 1. The Ministry of Energy and Green Transition and the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission should develop a long-tariff framework that protects the project’s viability while maintaining competitiveness. 2. The Ministry of Finance should prioritise concessional, long-tenor export-credit financing and assess proposed financing terms against their effect on shareholder returns. 3. The Ministry of Energy and Green Transition should require the FINPLAN model to be updated and used as a financial appraisal tool throughout project development. 4. Nuclear Power Ghana should establish a long-term nuclear fuel procurement and cost-management strategy.